The forecast of analysts if turns true would lead to banks having a merry time. It is expected that the top seven banks would be recording a growth in their net profit by an average of 13% on year on year basis in the March 2010 quarter. If Bank of India (BoI) is excluded then the remaining six banks would be accumulating an average of 22% net profit.
This return to normal state would be a reliever for banks who had struggled hard to keep their growth rates stable in the December 2009 quarter.
Revival in credit growth has been accounted to be one of the biggest reasons behind this turnaround. The recent RBI report has said that the credit growth has increased to 17%.
Along with the revival of credit growth, it has been expected that there would be an improvement in the net interest margin (NIM). A report by Angel securities said, "We expect NIMs to improve by 5-15 basis points sequentially during the March 2010 quarter, driven by an improving credit deposit ratio due to a strong 5-7% sequential loan growth and the residual downward re-pricing of deposits."
The March quarter saw a marginal rise in the bond yields as compared to the previous quarter.
"Better scheduling of the government borrowing program saved the day for public sector banks, as the 10-year yields on the reporting day stood at 7.83% compared to a consensus of over 8%",a report by ICICIdirect.com said.
HDFC bank will be at the pinnacle with a growth of 31% expected from it. it will be followed by PNB with a growth expected at 26%.
As for BoI, this quarter is expected to bring a decline by 39% in its profits.